中圖分類號： TN820.4 文獻標識碼： A DOI：10.16157/j.issn.0258-7998.222661 中文引用格式： 李贛華，董黎，李顯武，等. 基于故障樹的復(fù)雜航天系統(tǒng)故障預(yù)測方法[J].電子技術(shù)應(yīng)用，2022，48(10)：54-59. 英文引用格式： Li Ganhua，Dong Li，Li Xianwu，et al. A fault prediction method based on fault tree method for a complex space system[J]. Application of Electronic Technique，2022，48(10)：54-59.
A fault prediction method based on fault tree method for a complex space system
Li Ganhua1，2，Dong Li1，2，Li Xianwu1，2，Tai Nengjian1，2，Xia Keqiang1，2，Tai Wenxing1，2，An Yuan1，2
1.State Key Laboratory of Astronautic Dynamics，Xi′an 710043，China； 2.Xi′an Satellite Control Center，Xi′an 710043，China
Abstract： The space data processing center should be on-line running without stop in highly reliability and availability, so this paper presents a fault prediction method based on rule and fault tree, and designs the fault prediction system for processing management system of space data processing center. Firstly, the architecture of fault detection is designed for software and hardware of the space data processing center. Secondly, the derivation method is presented based on fault tree and rule of visualization to realize the fault function of the processing management system. Then, based on the fault detection, the fault prediction method is proposed using auto-selection method and artificial method, after the learning method is used between prediction result and historical data. At last, the application of the system is realized with the using of the method presented in this paper. On the comparison of the prediction result with the real data, the method of this paper is proved effective and efficient.
Key words : complex system；fault prediction；fault tree；space data processing center
